Tue. Oct 26th, 2021

While we are still waiting for the Jackson Hole symposium to begin today and the various presentations to begin, as we mentioned in our analysis last Monday in relation to the weekly outlook, this week has been loaded with macro data from Germany, which has not completely positive state. Here is a summary of this data:

  • During Monday’s session, we saw how preliminary data from the services and manufacturing sector PMI for Germany had stood at 61.5 and 62.7 points respectively, while the market consensus predicted that they would reach 61, 0 and at 65.0 points, so we could already see mixed results that showed a beginning of a slowdown in the economy.
  • On Tuesday we learned the data for the German quarterly GDP. This figure was better than expected by analysts ’consensus later during the second quarter, the German economy grew at a rate of 1.6%,leaving year-on-year GDP growth at two tenths of a percentage point above what the market consensus was expected to reach at 9.8%.
  • On Wednesday we met the data on business expectations in Germany, the IFO business confidence index in Germany and the current situation index in Germany. Of these 3 data, only Germany’s current situation data was positive after exceeding market expectations by reaching 101.4 points compared to the expected 100.8 points, we can check although now the situation is not bad, if we talk about future expectations these will not be so good. Specifically, both data were not only those expected by market consensus, but were also worse than the previous month’s data for the second consecutive month.
  • On the other hand, today Thursday we met the GfK Consumer Climate Index in Germany for September and these data have not only been worse than the previous month, but have also been worse than expected by the market consensus after standing at -1.2 points compared to -0 , 7 expected. It should be noted that this index it measures German consumer confidence in economic activity in which it seeks to predict rising consumer spending. This is also the second consecutive month in which this figure is negative.

Therefore, and taking into account all these data, we can appreciate once again that the future sentiment is not entirely positive despite the economic recovery evidenced by GDP in the second quarter and that both investors and consumers expect problems in the future. This could be explained by the problems generated by the Delta variant and the problems it generates in vaccines as we mentioned yesterday in our analysis and in the possible changes that central banks can introduce, ending monetary stimuli and possible rate increases. of interest. .

Technically speaking, if we look at the daily chart of the German DAX30, we can see that it follows a strong upward trend that has practically led it to mark historical highs after historical highs, although if we focus on recent weeks we can see some symptoms of exhaustion due to the accumulated overshoot we could see in the stochastic indicator with a virtually flat MACD indicator, although it currently has several important support points being the last of them the coincident area of ​​its lows of the ‘ last March and its average of 200 sessions represented by the lower red stripe.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5. DAX30 daily chart data range: April 23, 2020 to August 26, 2021. Prepared August 26, 2021 at 11:05 am CEST. Note that past performance does not guarantee future performance.

If we focus on the H4 chart, we can see that the price is currently at a significant support point in the matching area of ​​its moving average of 200 in H4 (red), the resistance support level represented by the orange band and its term ascending line as we can see in the upper red circle.

The loss of this important level of support could lead to a new correction that should first face the level of 15,480 points. The loss of this level would open the door to a new correction to the next major level of support represented by the upper red strip.

It is important that we follow the evolution of the price and the news not only of the Jackson Hole symposium, but also of the macroeconomic news that we will know in the coming weeks.

At the moment, although the data is not entirely positive in relation to future expectations, we cannot firmly state that the change in trend is imminent, so if we maintain these support levels we cannot rule out seeing new highs. historical.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5. Data range from graph DAX30 H4: March 19, 2021 to August 26, 2021. Prepared August 26, 2021 at 11:10 a.m. CEST. Note that past performance does not guarantee future performance.

Evolution in the last 5 years:

  • 2020: 3.6%
  • 2019: 25.48%
  • 2018: -18.26%
  • 2017: 12.51%
  • 2016: 6.87%

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